A Capital Idea

Madferret · 7-21-05, 12:14 PM

A Capital Idea
By Dan Rakusan, TheFourthPeriod.com

(OTTAWA, ON) -- Even though there is no formal deal between the warring factions of the NHL labor dispute, it is now widely assumed that a new collective bargaining agreement will be ratified by Friday, July 22nd.
The Ottawa Senators, a team on the cusp of greatness at the end of the old fiscal era, will have a lot of work to do once business resumes, although they are in a better position than many.

The reported cap figure in the new CBA is $39-million per team, with a floor of $21.5-million based on projected revenues for the 2005-06 season. Ottawa's payroll heading into this off-season is sitting at almost $24-million, and there are a few key players still not under contract .

Martin Havlat, Marian Hossa, Mike Fisher, Jason Spezza, Antoine Vermette, Todd White, Anton Volchenkov and Martin Prusek are among the notable restricted free agents, and re-signing them will be a top priority.
Havlat, who is coming off a career season in which he tallied 31 goals and 68 points in 68 games, should be seeking a substantial raise from the $960,000 he made last season. The speedy winger is rapidly establishing himself as one of the craftiest players in the league, and is a pivotal player in Ottawa's long-term success.

Hossa, an emerging elite power forward, put up 82 points including 36 goals in 81 games for the Senators, and is likely the best weapon in the Ottawa arsenal. With the new financial realities of the NHL, how much of a raise can he expect from the $2.75-million he made in 2003-04? It's a safe bet that the number will fall around the $4.5-million mark, leaving room for improvement, and not overly tying up cap space.

Spezza finally got to the big time last season, and is at the end of his entry-level contract. It is likely that he will be seeking a contract in the range of $2-million per season, which is a bargain for such a promising young player. Spezza's travels between the AHL Binghamton Senators and the NHL Ottawa Senators will likely serve as a reason to keep the contract at a reasonable salary number, with incentives largely tied to scoring. In all likelihood, this will be a "proving" contract for the former number two overall pick, and his chance to breach the next salary level upon the next opportunity for free agency.

White, Fisher, Vermette, Volchenkov and Prusek would all fit the "role player" mold at this time, and none are likely to be big contract problems. Of the group, perhaps Prusek and Volchenkov could present the toughest challenge for GM John Muckler, as they may be able to seek out equally lucrative contracts in their respective homelands.

Should Ottawa need to increase their cap space in order to make some key moves in free agency, their most likely course of action would be to buy out the contracts of veterans Bryan Smolinski and/or Greg de Vries. While both are potentially valuable players, the inability to renegotiate existing contracts to make cap room means that they could find themselves recipients of the golden handshake.

So, beyond the money, how do the Senators look?

Well, clearly the first question on everyone's mind is: "Can Hasek still dominate?"

The jury is still out on this one, but Muckler is willing to give his man a shot at $2-million for the season plus bonuses.

The Dominator has played only 14 games in the past 3 years, mainly due to a premature retirement and recurring groin injuries. He underwent successful groin surgery last summer, and is reportedly in excellent shape. Could the time off have been exactly what the doctor ordered? Or is a 41-year-old legend simply unable to get his game up to elite levels after so much of a layoff? And who will be there to pick up the ball should Hasek prove unable to play?

Prusek has to be given a chance, given his superb record as a backup to Patrick Lalime over the past few seasons. Beyond that, could it be time for Ray Emery (long considered Ottawa?s top prospect) to get a shot at the job, or perhaps Jeff Glass? Unlikely, if only for the reason that the owner Eugene Melnyk, president Roy Mlakar, GM John Muckler, coach Bryan Murray and the rest of the Senators' brain-trust are committed to bringing a championship to Canada's Capital in the immediate future.

A far more likely scenario would see a trade or free agent signing, of course depending on who is available. Don't expect the Senators to go after unrestricted free agent Nikolai Khabibulin, who is considered the top available free agent on the open market. It would simply create an uncomfortable situation in the locker room, and a logjam at a position the Senators are relatively deep at.

Defensively, the Senators are likely to look pretty much the same as they did before the lockout. Wade Redden, Zdeno Chara, Chris Phillips, de Vries and Brian Pothier are all under contract, and while Ottawa will likely attempt to re-sign Volchenkov, they will probably bid farewell to unrestricted veterans Curtis Leschyshyn and Todd Simpson. The likelihood of either UFA returning hinges on their loyalty to the team and their desire to play for a contender. Neither will make close to the money they made under the old financial regime ($1.5 Simpson, $2 Leschyshyn in millions). One might expect a 50% paycut.

The loss of Radek Bonk in a draft-day trade with the Los Angeles Kings (77th pick overall, Shawn Weller), is likely an indication that the team is ready to give Spezza the nod as the number one center on the roster.

The move could open up a roster spot for prospect Alexei Kaigorodov, who led the Russian Super League in scoring last season despite the influx of top-end NHL talent into the league.

Kaigorodov, drafted in 2002 (47th overall), is a potential impact player who can line up at any forward position but is a natural center. He has the combination of skill, speed and size that will become increasingly important as the NHL moves towards opening up the game and teams look more for a complete package to maximize their value per dollar. Depending on transfer fee agreements and Kaigorodov?s status with his RSL team Metallurg Magnitogorsk, and his overall desire to play in North America, he could be a first-line callup with Binghamton if nothing else.

On the wings, Ottawa is in great shape. The only major subtraction will likely be Peter Bondra, unless the 37-year-old sniper is willing to take a fairly substantial paycut from the $4.5-million he earned under his last contract. Assuming that all the free agents are kept, Ottawa's offence is among the most potent in the NHL. The only real weakness has always been the lack of a skilled, tough winger in the mould of a Gary Roberts or Shane Doan.

This off-season will likely see a higher than normal number of UFAs hitting the market through buyouts as teams trim payroll to get under the $39-million cap. Assuming the Senators buy out de Vries and Smolinski, which is the most discussed course of action, they will have over $20-million to spend. Their group of restricted free agents, once qualified, would tie up roughly one third of that, leaving over $12-million in "free money" in cap terms. With the 24% overall salary rollback, and the likely market adjustment for free agent offers this off-season, that $12-million represents potentially 3 or 4 mid-range players, or possibly two star caliber players, should the right fit be available.

Potential UFA targets:

Goaltenders: Nikolai Khabibulin (TB), Roman Cechmanek (LA), Curtis Joseph (DET), Jeff Hackett (PHI)

Defence: Alexei Zhitnik (BUF), Sergei Gonchar (BOS), Bryan Marchment (TOR), Vladimir Malakhov (PHI), Joel Bouchard (NYR), Adrian Aucoin (NYI), Brian Rafalski (NJ), Jiri Slegr (BOS), Sandis Ozolinsh (ANA), Adam Foote (COL), Sergei Zubov (DAL), Brad Bombardir (NAS), Mike Rathje (SJ), Alexander Khavanov (STL)

Wingers: Martin Lapointe (BOS), Glen Murray (BOS), Cory Stillman (TB), Gary Roberts (TOR), Bates Battaglia (WSH), Martin Gelinas (CGY), Paul Kariya (COL), Peter Forsberg (COL), Steve Thomas (DET), Adam Deadmarsh (LA), Zigmund Palffy (LA), Andrew Brunette (MIN), Martin Rucinsky (VAN), Magnus Arvedson (VAN)

Centers: Yanic Perreault (MTL), Marius Czerkawski (NYI), Eric Lindros (NYR), Alexei Zhamnov (PHI), Martin Straka (LA), Jozef Stumpel (LA), Pavol Demitra (STL), Mike Modano (DAL)

Dan Rakusan is a Senior Writer for The Fourth Period, as well as our Ottawa Correspondent

Source

Max Power · 7-21-05, 12:26 PM

Interesting article
What's the word on this Kaigorodov fellow? I don't know much about Sens prospects outside of Bing

Madferret · 7-21-05, 12:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Max Power

Interesting article
What's the word on this Kaigorodov fellow? I don't know much about Sens prospects outside of Bing

Alexei Kaigorodov
Prospect Grade: 7.5 B

History

Andrei Razin is one of Super League?s most renowned passers, and Kaigorodov was promoted to replace him on the line with Alexander Golts after Razin left for Dynamo Moscow. Another consideration that carries a lot of weight is that the team that Alexei plays for is Metallurg Magnitogorsk ? one of the deepest teams in the Super League and last year's champion. The promotion was a very significant step in Kaigorodov?s career. He took an even bigger step on his own when he actually succeeded in the role.

Talent Analysis

At the age of 18, Alexei Kaigorodov had already possessed a solid 6?1 and 181-pound frame. He is a natural center and possesses great hockey sense. He sees the ice very well and creates excellent chances for his linemates. According to a source close to the Metallurg Manager, he called Kaigorodov a natural passer and a great skater. He further elaborated that Kaigorodov has great lateral movement and skates well through traffic, but does not have fast breakaway speed. Despite his solid size, Kaigorodov is not very aggressive. Instead of playing physical hockey, he prefers to use his stick and positioning to stop the opponent or get the puck. Kaigorodov has an above average wrist shot, but needs to shoot more often. Mentally, Kaigorodov is calm and composed, fitting in well among the veteran players of one of the best hockey teams in Europe. The source close to Metallurg described him as reserved and without a ?stardom? complex that is common amongst younger players of his status.

Future

Kaigorodov has shined in international tournaments and fared well over in Russia. The question is how will he hold up on the smaller ice and physical play of the North American pro game. His speed and hockey sense will help, but he'll still need to add muscle in areas that won't take away from his game, but will make him more injury resistant and effective in those games. There is a learning curve ahead for Kaigorodov, but he's got the potential to be a player in the NHL.

Source

Man.Utd · 7-22-05, 3:36 PM

Very good article thanks for posting.

Quote:

Hossa, an emerging elite power forward, put up 82 points including 36 goals in 81 games for the Senators,

We can only wish.

A definite big-body who is willing to take abuse and drive to the net, etc. But far too passive to qualify as a powerforward in my book. Regardless, he's a very complete player that any team would love to have.

TimmyTabasco · 7-22-05, 3:48 PM

The sens should take a run at Ottawa born Aucoin

With him in the lineup, the team becomes even stronger

7-21-05, 12:14 PM	#1
Madferret Dolly Rocker Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: 613 Posts: 5,081	A Capital Idea A Capital Idea By Dan Rakusan, TheFourthPeriod.com (OTTAWA, ON) -- Even though there is no formal deal between the warring factions of the NHL labor dispute, it is now widely assumed that a new collective bargaining agreement will be ratified by Friday, July 22nd. The Ottawa Senators, a team on the cusp of greatness at the end of the old fiscal era, will have a lot of work to do once business resumes, although they are in a better position than many. The reported cap figure in the new CBA is $39-million per team, with a floor of $21.5-million based on projected revenues for the 2005-06 season. Ottawa's payroll heading into this off-season is sitting at almost $24-million, and there are a few key players still not under contract . Martin Havlat, Marian Hossa, Mike Fisher, Jason Spezza, Antoine Vermette, Todd White, Anton Volchenkov and Martin Prusek are among the notable restricted free agents, and re-signing them will be a top priority. Havlat, who is coming off a career season in which he tallied 31 goals and 68 points in 68 games, should be seeking a substantial raise from the $960,000 he made last season. The speedy winger is rapidly establishing himself as one of the craftiest players in the league, and is a pivotal player in Ottawa's long-term success. Hossa, an emerging elite power forward, put up 82 points including 36 goals in 81 games for the Senators, and is likely the best weapon in the Ottawa arsenal. With the new financial realities of the NHL, how much of a raise can he expect from the $2.75-million he made in 2003-04? It's a safe bet that the number will fall around the $4.5-million mark, leaving room for improvement, and not overly tying up cap space. Spezza finally got to the big time last season, and is at the end of his entry-level contract. It is likely that he will be seeking a contract in the range of $2-million per season, which is a bargain for such a promising young player. Spezza's travels between the AHL Binghamton Senators and the NHL Ottawa Senators will likely serve as a reason to keep the contract at a reasonable salary number, with incentives largely tied to scoring. In all likelihood, this will be a "proving" contract for the former number two overall pick, and his chance to breach the next salary level upon the next opportunity for free agency. White, Fisher, Vermette, Volchenkov and Prusek would all fit the "role player" mold at this time, and none are likely to be big contract problems. Of the group, perhaps Prusek and Volchenkov could present the toughest challenge for GM John Muckler, as they may be able to seek out equally lucrative contracts in their respective homelands. Should Ottawa need to increase their cap space in order to make some key moves in free agency, their most likely course of action would be to buy out the contracts of veterans Bryan Smolinski and/or Greg de Vries. While both are potentially valuable players, the inability to renegotiate existing contracts to make cap room means that they could find themselves recipients of the golden handshake. So, beyond the money, how do the Senators look? Well, clearly the first question on everyone's mind is: "Can Hasek still dominate?" The jury is still out on this one, but Muckler is willing to give his man a shot at $2-million for the season plus bonuses. The Dominator has played only 14 games in the past 3 years, mainly due to a premature retirement and recurring groin injuries. He underwent successful groin surgery last summer, and is reportedly in excellent shape. Could the time off have been exactly what the doctor ordered? Or is a 41-year-old legend simply unable to get his game up to elite levels after so much of a layoff? And who will be there to pick up the ball should Hasek prove unable to play? Prusek has to be given a chance, given his superb record as a backup to Patrick Lalime over the past few seasons. Beyond that, could it be time for Ray Emery (long considered Ottawa?s top prospect) to get a shot at the job, or perhaps Jeff Glass? Unlikely, if only for the reason that the owner Eugene Melnyk, president Roy Mlakar, GM John Muckler, coach Bryan Murray and the rest of the Senators' brain-trust are committed to bringing a championship to Canada's Capital in the immediate future. A far more likely scenario would see a trade or free agent signing, of course depending on who is available. Don't expect the Senators to go after unrestricted free agent Nikolai Khabibulin, who is considered the top available free agent on the open market. It would simply create an uncomfortable situation in the locker room, and a logjam at a position the Senators are relatively deep at. Defensively, the Senators are likely to look pretty much the same as they did before the lockout. Wade Redden, Zdeno Chara, Chris Phillips, de Vries and Brian Pothier are all under contract, and while Ottawa will likely attempt to re-sign Volchenkov, they will probably bid farewell to unrestricted veterans Curtis Leschyshyn and Todd Simpson. The likelihood of either UFA returning hinges on their loyalty to the team and their desire to play for a contender. Neither will make close to the money they made under the old financial regime ($1.5 Simpson, $2 Leschyshyn in millions). One might expect a 50% paycut. The loss of Radek Bonk in a draft-day trade with the Los Angeles Kings (77th pick overall, Shawn Weller), is likely an indication that the team is ready to give Spezza the nod as the number one center on the roster. The move could open up a roster spot for prospect Alexei Kaigorodov, who led the Russian Super League in scoring last season despite the influx of top-end NHL talent into the league. Kaigorodov, drafted in 2002 (47th overall), is a potential impact player who can line up at any forward position but is a natural center. He has the combination of skill, speed and size that will become increasingly important as the NHL moves towards opening up the game and teams look more for a complete package to maximize their value per dollar. Depending on transfer fee agreements and Kaigorodov?s status with his RSL team Metallurg Magnitogorsk, and his overall desire to play in North America, he could be a first-line callup with Binghamton if nothing else. On the wings, Ottawa is in great shape. The only major subtraction will likely be Peter Bondra, unless the 37-year-old sniper is willing to take a fairly substantial paycut from the $4.5-million he earned under his last contract. Assuming that all the free agents are kept, Ottawa's offence is among the most potent in the NHL. The only real weakness has always been the lack of a skilled, tough winger in the mould of a Gary Roberts or Shane Doan. This off-season will likely see a higher than normal number of UFAs hitting the market through buyouts as teams trim payroll to get under the $39-million cap. Assuming the Senators buy out de Vries and Smolinski, which is the most discussed course of action, they will have over $20-million to spend. Their group of restricted free agents, once qualified, would tie up roughly one third of that, leaving over $12-million in "free money" in cap terms. With the 24% overall salary rollback, and the likely market adjustment for free agent offers this off-season, that $12-million represents potentially 3 or 4 mid-range players, or possibly two star caliber players, should the right fit be available. Potential UFA targets: Goaltenders: Nikolai Khabibulin (TB), Roman Cechmanek (LA), Curtis Joseph (DET), Jeff Hackett (PHI) Defence: Alexei Zhitnik (BUF), Sergei Gonchar (BOS), Bryan Marchment (TOR), Vladimir Malakhov (PHI), Joel Bouchard (NYR), Adrian Aucoin (NYI), Brian Rafalski (NJ), Jiri Slegr (BOS), Sandis Ozolinsh (ANA), Adam Foote (COL), Sergei Zubov (DAL), Brad Bombardir (NAS), Mike Rathje (SJ), Alexander Khavanov (STL) Wingers: Martin Lapointe (BOS), Glen Murray (BOS), Cory Stillman (TB), Gary Roberts (TOR), Bates Battaglia (WSH), Martin Gelinas (CGY), Paul Kariya (COL), Peter Forsberg (COL), Steve Thomas (DET), Adam Deadmarsh (LA), Zigmund Palffy (LA), Andrew Brunette (MIN), Martin Rucinsky (VAN), Magnus Arvedson (VAN) Centers: Yanic Perreault (MTL), Marius Czerkawski (NYI), Eric Lindros (NYR), Alexei Zhamnov (PHI), Martin Straka (LA), Jozef Stumpel (LA), Pavol Demitra (STL), Mike Modano (DAL) Dan Rakusan is a Senior Writer for The Fourth Period, as well as our Ottawa Correspondent Source

7-21-05, 12:26 PM	#2
Max Power HS MVP Join Date: Apr 2005 Posts: 2,287	Interesting article What's the word on this Kaigorodov fellow? I don't know much about Sens prospects outside of Bing __________________ To me, it's a good idea to always carry two sacks of something when you walk around. That way, if anybody says, "Hey, can you give me a hand?" You can say, "Sorry, got these sacks."

7-22-05, 3:48 PM	#5
TimmyTabasco Sauceboy Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Vancouver, Canada Posts: 3,347	The sens should take a run at Ottawa born Aucoin With him in the lineup, the team becomes even stronger