Oilers Plus/Minus

[Daryl Shilling]

A shameless copy and paste of a post that I already wrote this morning. :)

We're right around 1/4 of the season, so in this post, I thought it would be a good time to look at how the Oilers have been doing in plus/minus, but with a twist on the traditional method. Alot of people like to poo-poo +/-, saying that it doesn't mean anything, that it's useless for comparing players on different clubs, but as long as certain things are accounted for, you can greatly reduce these things. Good players on bad teams can be a minus, and bad players on good teams can have plus ratings, so certain issues need to be addressed.

Here is the Adjusted Plus/Minus per 1000 Even-Strength Minutes, for the Oilers roster so far this year. The idea is to determine the rate at which players compile pluses or minuses, compare it to the team average, and account for differences in ice time. By not accounting for ice time, defensemen almost always move up to the top or sink to the bottom, due to their greater chance of penalty/reward from having more icetime than forwards.

Determing this is straight-forward:

a) Team Plus/Minus Adjustment (TPMA) = TESPM / TESM
-where TESPM equals Team Even-Strength Plus/Minus and TESM equals Team Even-Strength Minutes

b) Even-Strength Plus Minus (ESPM) = PM - SHP
where PM equals the player's Plus/Minus, and SHP equals Short-Handed Points

c) Plus/Minus per 1000 Even-Strength Minutes (PM1k) = ((ESPM / ESM) - TPMA) * 1000

Oilers roster, by position:

[Daryl Shilling]

Some notes:

-Igor Ulanov has been nothing short of terrible for the Oilers this season. I doubt these nubmers surprise anybody that's been watching the team.
-So far, Dan Smith has played well in the minutes that he's been asked to play. He's only played 72 ESMIN so far, so we'll have to see how his numbers hold up after receiving more playing time.
-Oilers fans generally hate him, and have wished to see him driven from the roster, but Cross has been solid so far (as usual I might add).

-Fernando Pisani has played quite responsibly so far.
-I did Kolanos' numbers for his time in Phoenix as well as Edmonton. The Coyotes could have used him, I'd think.
-Michael Peca plays some pretty minutes, but -6.9 is definitely low. I know the Oilers were hoping for more than this, as well some more offense.
-Raffi Torres and Jarrett Stoll have been good on the PP, but seem to be receiving more ES time than they can effectively play. They are 4th and 5th, respectively in ES Points per Minute, yet are well in the minuses.
-Brad Winchester isn't working out... Yet. Let's see how he does with more minutes.
-Georges Laraque has been very bad. He's not receiving tough minutes, isn't producing offense, and even takes silly penalties to beat. Oh well, at least he beat the living crap out of Rob Ray 6 or 7 years ago...

Daryl

[PDO]

Pisani has definitely been up to his usual tricks this year; he's not scoring a lot, but the guy is almost never on for a goal against.

Smyth has been scoring at a RIDICULOUS rate 5x5.. it's actually stunning. That said, he's been scored on at almost the same rate; which is extremely un-Smyth like.

Peca hasn't been scoring, but I think Horcoff has been the direct beneficiary from his arrival. Last year we rode that Smyth - Horcoff - Pisani line straight into hell (and got amazing results while we were doing it too).. Horcoff is now getting much nicer matchups, and is able to really outscore his opposition thanks to it. Peca is one of the few guys in the league who can hope to just compeltely neutralize a top line, and having a guy like that is an asset. Peca isn't as effective as Horcoff was last year, but because he's able to generally draw even against those guys he's making up for not outscoring them because Horcoff is lighting up that secondary opposition.

Kolanos could be a real nice addition, and can hopefully help out Torres and Stoll.

I said Winchester was a bum before the season started.

Laraque sucking isn't a surprise.. Ulanov is.

I've always felt sorry for Cross.

[Canadian26]

Im not a fan of cross, but he hasnt been horrible this season which is good. Igor, has been suprsing, hes usually very responsible with the puck but we're seen so many give aways and bad plays by him.

I dont mind have torress and stolls numbers more negative, espically stoll. Hes usually on for the PK as well, but both of them have been puting up pnts almost on a nightly bases, which is an asset to have 1 and half lines that you can expect goals from.

I agree with PDO on the peca comment, I like the way he plays, and it is allowing for some other players to show what they can do. Like reasoner lately...