View Full Version : Why Doesn't Wellwood Get More Time?
Newfie John
11-13-05, 2:41 PM
Here's a look at the rookie scoring race:
1. Sidney Crosby ..... 20 points
2. A. Ovechkin ........ 18
3. Pavel Vorobiev ..... 15
4. Marek Svatos ...... 14
5. Alexander Steen .. 13
6.Thomas Vanek ...... 13
7. Kyle Wellwood ..... 12
Wellwood is averaging about 7-8 minutes a game, and Wellwood has played less games then everyone on that list. Wellwood's goal last night was another flash of his good offensive mind. IMO, Wellwood should be our 2nd line center right now. I mean, just look at the stats, and usually he's playing with sub-par linemates. He's a +6 by the way. That isn't totally accurate since he usually has the easiest job out there when defending, but none the less he's covering his end and his creativity offensively is just awesome.
Here are what I would love to have as the lines.
O'niell - Sundin - Tucker
Stajan - Wellwood - Steen
Kilger- Lindros - Antropov
Domi - Allison - Poni
Yes, the kid line. I loved their chemistry when they were together. Yes, having Steen on the top line with Sundin at the moment is nice but I think the usefulness of Tucker is greater when out there with Sundin. The top 2 lines can put the puck in the net and keep the puck out. As can the third line with a little less on the offensive side. Allison is on the 4th line until he wakes up, or traded.
Anyway, back to Wellwood. 12 points in 17 games. I'm guessing thats on pace for around 60 points over the year. Think about that, while he's playing 8 minutes per game.
Let's take a look at Jason Spezza in his first year in the NHL. I chose Spezza because Wellwood was right with him production wise in every other league. Put Wellwood at 6'3 and you have yourself a top 3 pick in the draft aswell. Anyway, in 33 games Spezza had 21 points and a -3(say what you want about the validity of the stat, you know how I feel). I can't remember the minutes Spezza was getting but I doubt it was any less then 8, if I were a betting man I'd say he had at least 10. The year after he got the minutes he deserved and he put 55 points up there.
Give Wellwood the minutes he deserves and maybe Welly can put up 55 points this year, and then that could continually grow as he matures. And why not? Allison is playing like the sh!ts, and Lindros has been inconsistant, and has slowed down lately. Why not just try it? What's the worst that can happen, play like we've been playing lately?
Leafs_Fa_Life
11-13-05, 3:07 PM
I'm all for Welly getting a bit more ice time, but I would not put the kid line back together. Tucker has done nothing this year to warrant top line minutes, and playing with Sundin will only raise Steen's game. Maybe a Stajan-Welly-Tucker line would work alright?
I think it's time for the Leafs to trade Antropov. I was willing to give him a chance coming into the season, but with the emergence Welly the team has 10 forwards that could play on the top three lines and Stajan has been the odd man out, lining up on the fourth line the past two games.
I'd go with:
Steen-Sundin-O'Neill
Poni-Lindros-Allison
Stajan-Welly-Tucker
Kilger-Wilm-Domi
Hopefully those top 3 lines would perform well, and the fourth group of guys would only see 5-7 minutes and Wilm would also play on the PK.
Madferret
11-13-05, 3:12 PM
I think you have to ask Jason Allison how he feels about that.
As you said John, Allison has basically floated for you guys, take him and/or Antropov out of the equation and Wellwood's getting 16-20 min icetime.
In the same breath, you gotta say that it's baby steps with Quinn as the coach. He is a veteran's coach, but he's got Steen up on Line 1 and he won't be able to limit Wellwood's ice-time for much longer.
A picture says a thousand words, John.
http://www.cbc.ca/gfx/topstory/sports/quinn_pat0419.jpg
As for Spezza John, I'm just going off of memory here. But his ES time on ice (IIRC) was about the same under Jacques Martin (Spezza's biggest hater) as Wellwood's currently is under Pat Quinn. However, unlike Wellwood, Spezza did recieve some PP time (albeit with the second unit). That equals out to about 2 minutes per game (a bit more probably) so I'd say your estimate would be pretty accurate.
I hardly think Spezza "got the minutes he deserved" last year though. He was better than both White and Bonk and IMO should have been our #1 center already at that point. Now, finally getting the top position and playing with real linemates, Spezza is second in assists, tied for 3rd in points, and 3rd in PPG trailing Forsberg by one point and fellow teammate and Captain Daniel Alfredsson by 3. And although a team stat I feel it is worth pointing out that Spezza a +18 (3rd in the NHL). He still has some pretty bad giveaways, but his defensive short-comings, though still apparent, were definatly over-exagerated by a fanatical defensive coach.
EDIT - I went checked their ice-time out of curiosity. Wellwood currently has gotten an average ice-time of 11:30 per game. Spezza recieved 12:40 in his rookie season. In both cases, that was a tad more than I was expected. The difference, as I theorized earlier, was to be the special teams. That would also account for quality scoring chances. Once again I was surprised, seeing the players being roughly equal in that regard. Spezza got 3:24 average time on ice per game with the man advantage. Wellwood is getting 3:02 himself. So Spezza actually just got a bit more even strength time than his counter-part. Both players obviously didn't see any PK duties. Infact, both had (or at least going by Wellwood's current totals - he still has the majority of a season left to play) 0:04 SH/TOI per game. Both players were stuck with scrubs 5 on 5.
Wellwood is on pace for 57 points in 81 games assuming Quinn keeps him up all year (and I'm dubious that he will) for a PPG average of .70. Spezza got 21 in 33 as a rookie, good for a PPG of .64. So pretty close again. Though it is worth noting the "new" NHL and the different systems the two played (and are playing) in under coaches Martin and Quinn who have very different philosophies. Thank you Mr Murray for the positive changes. Obviously, our GA hasn't suffered much now that we have a real goalie.
Wellwood is a player that deserves more PP ice time, really. A great stat to figure out someones effectiveness on the PP is simply looking at their PPP's/hour (PP / ice time in minutes * 60). An elite PP player will usually hit over 5.
Jason Allison 5.95
Darcy Tucker 5.33
Eric Lindros 4.27
Jeff O`Niel 7.11
Alexander Steen 4.30
Kyle Wellwood 6.95
After that, no one has over 50 minutes of PP time. The players are sorted by PP time. Now, asides from the fact that this shows that the Leafs PP has been lethal this year; it also shows it would presumably be better if the first 3 forwards sent out (Kaberle is doing well on the PP, is he not...) were Allison, O`Niel and Wellwood. Obviously Sundin coming back changes this a bit, but those are the numbers.. anyway ;)
From what I have seen of him I have been impressed with his play, he needs to shore up his play in our zone for sure but that should come with more icetime. As has been mentioned Quinn is the big problem with Kyle, he must be having sensory overload with all of those twenty somethings running around on the ice at various times during the games.
Also I have been real impressed with the play of the kids, Stajan has stepped it up to his earlier play and his PK play has been awesome. Steen has looked awesome with whomever he is paired with. Kronwall (sp?) is a far sight better then watching Blake (oops typo, meant to say Belak) skate around in circles looking for the opposing players.........
Newfie John
11-15-05, 5:50 AM
Here's a good article on Welly..
The year was 1999, Kyle Wellwood's rookie season in the Ontario Hockey League and he was full of bold predictions.
One day when he was talking to his agent, Wellwood mentioned that he would win the league's scoring title the next season. His agent reminded him that he'd be going head-to-head against some guy named Jason Spezza, but Wellwood didn't seem very concerned about that.
The next season, he was the OHL's top scorer with 118 points, two more than Spezza.
That wasn't the only prediction Wellwood made that day. He also told his agent that by his third year of professional hockey, he'd be playing in the NHL.
Right again.
"John (Maple Leafs GM Ferguson) called me a couple of weeks ago and said, 'Consider yourself on the team,'" Wellwood said. "I guess that's about as clear as you can get."
Don't let Wellwood's golly-gee-I'm-just-happy-to-be-here act fool you. The 22-year-old rookie is brimming with confidence and it shows in how assertive he plays offensively. He isn't hesitant to try high-risk moves that can either make the highlight reels or the team's video session the next day. A case in point came earlier this season when, with the Leafs clinging to a one-goal lead, Wellwood tried to score on a breakaway by shooting between his legs.
Leafs coach Pat Quinn was not the least bit impressed ? largely because Wellwood failed to score ? but he does admire the young man's sense of adventure.
"He's deceptive and a lot of people don't know him," Quinn says. "He shows you things and he's not afraid to try and there are so many things you like about that attitude and the more he keeps showing he can do it on a fairly regular basis, the more (ice) time he's going to end up getting."
Wellwood scored his fourth goal of the season in Saturday night's 5-4 overtime win over the Montreal Canadiens on a wonderful give-and-go with Nik Antropov. That gave him a respectable 12 points in 17 games and put him on pace for a 20-goal rookie season.
More important, a player who was once considered too small, too lazy and not committed enough to the defensive aspects of the game goes into tomorrow night's game against the New York Rangers leading the Leafs in plus-minus at plus-6.
And, depending on how Carlo Colaiacovo develops, Wellwood might turn out to be the best player the Leafs drafted in 2001. Colaiacovo, who was selected 17th overall, remains an unknown, largely because injuries have hurt his development.
Karel Pilar (taken 39th) has health issues and if defencemen Brendan Bell (65th) or Jay Harrison (82nd) become NHL players, it almost certainly won't be with the Leafs. That leaves Wellwood, who was taken 134th and has made more progress than any Leaf prospect since then.
"I figured it was going to take a lot of work for me to get up here and it definitely has," Wellwood said. "And it's going to take a lot more work to prove myself to be a good player here."
The main reason Wellwood is playing at the NHL level is that he now gets it. The same player one member of the Leafs' front office once referred to as a "space cadet" has come a long way in developing his total game and has come to realize the conditioning level that it takes to be an NHL player.
"I think I've figured it out over the past couple of years playing in the minors," Wellwood said. "Learning how to be a pro on and off the ice takes a while, but I think I've done that so far."
Wellwood's history suggests that he takes a year to get accustomed to his new surroundings, then becomes a dominant offensive player. He won the scoring title in his second year of junior and scored 38 goals and 87 points for St. John's last season. "Being creative offensively has to be my strength," he said. "It's something that I have to do."
I could see this kid racking up a helluva lot of points one day. We got one here for sure. Hopefully Quinn's promise to give him more time will come true. It's good to see he has confidence aswell so now his game won't be limited and he has adjusted to the NHL. Barry Trapp is starting to prove himself. Steen, Stajan, Wellwood, Kronwall , Tellqvist and others all on the leaf lineup.
Good read. Nice to see he has some confidence in his ability to boot. Predicting he'd win the scoring title and make the NHL were no small predictions. And the Toronto scouts seem to be improving getting guys like Welly, Stajan, Steen, and Kronwall (not sure on upside) out of the draft now. Though people like Pilar, Bell (no!), and maybe soon Colaiacovo seem like they'll either be busts or just not live up to the hype, even if serviceable.
Though I would like to remind Mr. Wellwood that Spezza played 13 less games and was on a much weakerer team. Ottawa finished 2nd overall that year and it was Wellwood's power Bellville Bulls coming in 1st by only 2 points. They also had the league's best offense scoring an Ontario best 275 GF. Meanwhile, Spezza played on a laughable Missasauga Ice Dogs team. I mean these guys were early '90 Senators bad. They set some freakin' records IIRC. The Ice Dogs had but 3 wins all year and a league worst .110 W%. They had a league worst 157 GF (next was Kitchener with 183) and Spezza, with 116 points, was in all nearly all of them. 74% to be exact. And he only played in 56 of their 68 contests. Simply put, Missasauga needed Jason to succeed. He was the league MVP. That couldn't be said about Wellwood, and although they were traded for each other, it was essentially a few months of Spezza for a few years of Wellwood. And with Jason being head and shoulders above anyone else in the league at the time, it was worth it. Obviously, the gap has closed between Spezza and his peers but I still consider him hands down the best up and coming C in the game behind only wonder-kid Crosby. And I think Crosby is over-hyped anyway.
Newfie John
11-15-05, 4:46 PM
I don't think Wellwood is over Spezza but I think their careers will be very similar.
We shall see. I haven't seen as much of Wellwood as I have of Spezza. Spetzky obviously has been monitored closely since being drafted by my Sens. And as a junior he was just crazy good so naturally I caught a good amount of Ice Dogs games to see him play. Just refer to my last post where I explained the circumstances he was under and still led the league in (PPG) scoring by a clear margin.
I saw quite a bit of Wellwood in junior aswell. Being our big division rivals, I always caught Bellville vs. Ottawa. And with the two clubs fighting neck and neck for 1st overall I was wathcing more Bellville hockey than usual, rooting against the enemy while wanting to see the implications in the standings. Obviously, since he went to St John's he sort of fell off of the radar. Now in TO, I see lots of him again, somewhat unfortunatly, because the Leafs are being shoved down my throat. But I still don't see him....... I dunno....... "dominate" maybe? It's hard to explain, but he just doesn't have that same aura that Spezza or Malkin does to me if you want to talk about premier, though not Crosby or Ovechkin-esque, type center prospects.
Long story short, I don't think Wellwood will ever be more than a good #1 center. Lol. That sounds strange. Anyway, I think Spezza on the other hand will be a Hart / Art Ross candidate in his prime. In fact, I wouldn't be shocked if he won the Art Ross this season. He's 4th in PPG right now. Though I'd sooner bet on either of his superb linemates in Alfredsson and Heatley or Peter Forsberg.
Wellwood doesn't have the skating or the size to be a good #1 center in full sense of the word. He may be a #1 offensive center.. but that's not the same thing in todays NHL. I think he could have a very similar career to that of Doug Weight. Be a mediocre 5x5 player, but an amazing PP player who can make himself look better than he actually is.
Newfie John
11-16-05, 5:35 AM
PDO, you said at the beginning of the year that Wellwood was too small to be in the NHL. Now you're saying he's too small to be a top line center? How many times is he going to have to prove you wrong?
Andy, I'm not saying Wellwood is at the level of play Spezza is right now. But I do think he is around where Spezza was in his rookie year. Give Wellwood the two more years, the ice time, and top line wingers like Spezza has, their production could be similar. Giving Spezza the edge ofcourse because Spezza is simply the better player.
Wellwood doesn't have the skating or the size to be a good #1 center in full sense of the word. He may be a #1 offensive center.
I consider that to be a "good" offensive center. :shrug:
Many of the league's best don't excel in their own end and it's damn worth the sacrafice in those cases. I don't think Wellwood will ever be among the elite pivots out there, but I can see him being a nice bit above average if all goes well.
I'm just saying Spezza's been consistantly better while consistantly being on lesser teams (well the team thing stopped during the lockout. But it was obvious who dominated more there and is doing so again now in the NHL).
Looking at Wellwood's impressive start so far, I really don't think it's any better than Spezza's NHL debut. And Wellwood has the advantage of debuting at age 22. Spezza was still in his teens. In fact, Spezza put up an almost identical PPG average with roughly equal ice-time (both ES and PP) but he played in the "old" NHL under a much more defensive system. His coach also had it in for him (though it seems that way with Wellwood and Quinn, too).
First off, Andy, I mean be the #1 threat down the middle for a team. There are a lot of teams with a guy like Datsyuk who has to play extremely sheltered minutes 5x5, and doesn't really help his team win 5x5, but because of what he can do on the PP it makes up for it. Only the truly elite players can play against the other eltie players in the league and outscore them. Find a guy who can do that, and you have a helluva player.
... Wellwood isn't that player, and never will be. Joe Thornton is that player. Peter Forsberg is that player. Wellwood.. never. Spezza could one day be that player, just because he can keep the other team out of his own end by having the puck on his teammates sticks. He's not there yet, 5x5.
John.. Wellwood hasn't proved me wrong at all yet. He still can't take a regular shift in the NHL. Is he playing extremely well on the PP in the new "non-contact in front of the net" NHL? Absolutely. Well that keep up? Problaly not at that pace, but he should still be a solid addition to the 2nd unit of the Leafs PP by mid-season. Also, saying that he could be a better player if he'd been in the NHL the last few years is ridiculous. There are VERY few guys who are ready for the NHL before they turn 20, and I'd wager less than 10% of players under 24 can help their team win the game playing 5x5.
Like I said, his max upside is Doug Weight, though I doubt he ever reaches even that level. He'll be a player who is extremely sheltered 5x5 BUT can be a huge contributer on the PP.. assuming the NHL keeps its current rules of no contact in front of the net.
Man.Utd
11-16-05, 10:45 PM
I agree with some of what you said PDO. And thanks for clearing up what you meant with regards to a good #1 center. And just for the record, Wellwood will never come close to Spezza's production IMHO. He just isn't good enough a player to me and he won't have the better linemates to compensate. Spezza will likely have the better surroundings actually. And that pretty much sums it up. In fact, if you switched their roles in junior I bet Spezza gets 200 points and Wellwood not even a PPG for that huge year John's article sited. And it's clear who dominate at the AHL level. The NHL level? Spezza put up equally as good stats in a defensive system in the old NHL, while being years younger. Now with both players being 22, Jason is among the league's leading scorers and has a legit shot at the Art Ross (though that's true for many, many players this season). Wellwood? 40 pts is a success for him this year. Just sticking with Toronto under vet-loving coach Pat Quinn is actually. He's done all he can in that regard though and certainly deserves a (permanent) job with the Big Club. We shall see.
Wellwood has been proving a lot of people wrong for the past few years. He would have been the AHL's leading scorer if not for NHL calibre players being there last season. It sucks for Kyle, because he's mssing out on alot of hype due to bad circumstances. But maybe that's good. It keeps players grounded and makes for more affordable contract. Ironically, it was Spezza that came down and was the clear cut league MVP last saeson.
Now at the NHL level he's also been producing at a pleasantly surprising level. He's probably been the Leafs' best center after Lindros (though with Sundin back now there is an even bigger log jam at center. And no doubt the big Swede slides into that #1 spot, rightfully so I might add). Antropov has sucked, Allison has done nothing but float (and put up deceptively high #'s, which sucks for Toronto $$$ wise), and Stajan hasn't been quite up to his level despite playing alright. Steen has been even better, producing just as much while being a force two-way.
However, for all the apparent PP succes you claim Wellwood has been benefitting from, the reality is he's been a huge dissapointement with the man advantage. For the games I saw him on the PP, he was completely ineffective. He can't mainting puck possesion, has had giveaways on what should be wasy passes, and he's taking shots that are likely to - and eventually are - blocked. He's forcing some things perhaps. Or maybe NHL PK'ers can read the plays that would normally work in the AHL. Whatever the case, Wellwood has 1 PP point in over 50 minutes of PP time thus far. Obviously, that aspect of his game will need to improve if he's ever to become a true #1 center. Your top pivot needs to be able to rack up some points with the extra man.
Anyway, just showing that he's been very solid 5 on 5. Contrary to popular belief, the PP has been by far the most dissapointing part of his game thus far for a supposedly "finesse, offensive" and certainly "small" center.
Andy, he has 1 PP goal.. several PP assists. Check my stat a bit higher up, he's been (statistically) the 2nd best Toronto forward on the PP.
I don't see how you can say he's been solid 5x5 when he's playing against the Chad Kilgers of the league, either.
Newfie John
11-17-05, 5:51 AM
He's playing with the Chad Kilgers of the league, and I've seen no problem with his 5x5 play. Have you? Could you point out an example? Which game? All of them? How?
I'm not saying Wellwood is Jason Spezza. What I could see happening though is what happened in the AHL last year. Spezza with 100+ points and Wellwood with 80 - 100, when they both reach max potential.
Spezza was absolutely HORRIBLE defensively when he first came into the league, but I think coaching had a lot to do with that. Wellwood usually has the easiest job out there defensively, which helps boost his +/-. PDO, you're a believer in the +/- stat, explain to me how you feel Wellwood is bad 5x5 while he has the best +/- on the team, and of all rookies IIRC.
Most of Wellwood's points have come from 5x5 aswell.
The problem with his 5x5 play is that he isn't playing a whole lot of it. He's NOT taking a regular shift in the NHL.
I'm a believer of the +/- stat when you look at it in context John. You know that, so don't try to bait me. Wellwood is outscoring absolute scrubs. I'm sorry, being able to deke through Goerges Laraque doesn't make you a special player.
Most of Wellwoods points have come from 5x5?
He has 12 points. 6 came on the PP. Using the exact logic you just used most of his points came on the PP.
He's averaging 11:15 a game for ice time.
8:18 even strength minutes a game. The absolute lowest among Toronto forwards. Say all you want about Pat Quinn, but he has 6 points at ES playing against the absolute worst the NHL has to offer.
I avoid Toronto games like the plague, but sometimes it's all I have to choose from. I've seen Wellwood get extremely sheltered minutes when playing. I've seen that he has done somewhat well with these minutes (he is, afterall outscoring his opponents more than anyone else.. but then again, the guys he's outscoring are still bad). I've seen that he hasn't been given much PP time, but I can also see that he has put up some very solid numbers on the PP.
I'm working with a small sample size, mistakes will be made, but until he can play against the top 2 lines on another team and outsccore them, he's a dime-a-dozen hockey player as far as ES is concerend. If he can continue to keep the pace he is on the PP though, he'll have some upside that makes him worth not being much of an ES player.
Newfie John
11-17-05, 3:35 PM
Wellwood is hardly getting any minutes out there, and he has 6 points even strength so far. It's his rookie year. You don't see many guys getting on the top 2 lines unless your name is Crosby or Ovechkin right away in their rookie years. You can't logically say Wellwood's a bad ES strength guy against top 2 lines, when he hasn't played against them. He's playing against 3rd line guys, and he's playing with pieces of crap a lot of the time aswell. Take both of those facts hand in hand.
Unproven is something you could say, but not bad. You dont know that yet. 5on5 he's been good, on the PP he's the same player in my eyes.
* shakes first at NHL.com * (http://www.nhl.com/nhlstats/stats)
When you check PP scoring, you think it would show PPP. Not PP goals. Afterall, the scoring leader wins the Art Ross, not the Richard (unless the player is winning in both points and goals). Poor assumption on my part. I should've made a point to check it was not goals they were showing.
Anyway, still doesn't change the fact he's been veyr unimpressive with the man advantage when I've seen him. What I said before still applies to the times I've seen him. He has been good 5 on 5 though. Better than I antcipated for one thing.
Newfie John
11-17-05, 5:55 PM
* shakes first at NHL.com * (http://www.nhl.com/nhlstats/stats)
When you check PP scoring, you think it would show PPP. Not PP goals. Afterall, the scoring leader wins the Art Ross, not the Richard (unless the player is winning in both points and goals). Poor assumption on my part. I should've made a point to check it was not goals they were showing.
Anyway, still doesn't change the fact he's been veyr unimpressive with the man advantage when I've seen him. What I said before still applies to the times I've seen him. He has been good 5 on 5 though. Better than I antcipated for one thing.
He's no special force on the PP from when I've seen him either. I think he's just as useful 5x5 on the PP, from what I've seen anyway.
wildboy26
11-21-05, 10:20 PM
He should be happy with what he is getting considering he wasnt even supposed to make the team at the start of the year. Next year some contracts will run out and thus some salaries of droppable veterans, not useless or anything, but loseable is all I am meaning, could be dropped; affording Wellwood more of a spot on the team.
charlio lemieux
11-26-05, 7:51 PM
Wellwood is finally getting his chance with Sundin, on the top line. No one else seems to have worked. Good Luck Kid!
Mats is looking much better tonight. When his shift overlaps into the Stajan, Domi line it has had some chances. Maybe that is a way to get the three big centers their ice-time.
Newfie John
11-26-05, 8:39 PM
Wellwood is playing real well tonight against the Habs. He's had 2 great chances which he created on his own. He's been all over the place. Great to see.
vBulletin® v3.6.3, Copyright ©2000-2008, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.